MLB Picks: Baseball Betting with Swinging Johnson

SJ is locked and loaded every Saturday with a full list of MLB picks.

Season Record:

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2012 MLB: 38-31-1 (+17.40 units)

2011 NFL: 48-33-7 (+34.75 units)

2011 NBA: 4-4-1 (-1.8 units)

2011 NCAA: 18-15-1 (-6.8 units)

*All bets are weighted between 1 and 5 units.

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Last Week (1-2, -2.0 units)

It was more of the same last week as we dropped another couple of units. The good news is that our 5 unit max play clicked with the Tampa Bay Rays laying 1 ? runs over the home dog Minnesota Twins. Unfortunately we had a big 4 unit underdog in the Colorado Rockies (+205) but they fell to the Giants 9-3 and then we had the Pittsburgh Pirates -1 ? (+120) for 3 units as they were blanked 5-0 by the Padres.?

Before I move forward, here?s a shout-out to a good guy and loyal follower named will2survive. He is an astute SBR poster who realizes this is a volatile business and nothing written here or anywhere else about a future event is guaranteed. If you want a guy who will tell you what you want to hear, there are hundreds of touts who will eagerly take your money and whisper guaranteed 50,000 unit platinum play of the millennium in your ear. You do understand of course that a 50,000 unit play means if you are a one dollar bettor, trading singles at a bar with your buddy, watching the games roll by, draining a few beers and having a few laughs that you are now instructed to raid your IRA account, call in those CD?s (early penalty withdrawal be damned) and shake grandma down for your inheritance. Yes, because this is a 50,000 unit play which means you must take your average wager and multiply it by, well you guessed it, 50,000. If you happen to be a $100 bettor, I suggest you knock over an armored car.

It?s all silliness and the only difference between me and the average bettor is that I have gotten my nose bloodied more often than not but with all those bumps and bruises, you begin to detect patterns and you get better. The names change every dozen years but players and teams fall into categories. It?s like being a movie critic, sometimes you can predict the ending after watching only the first few minutes. One thing I have also learned to do is my homework. I study the past so I may be in a better position to predict the future.?

But I make mistakes. And last week I made a very silly mistake with my MLB picks in assigning 4 units to a game that I clearly stated was a coin flip in my mind. I noted the Rockies had tons of value at north of 2 to 1 but the game itself was a tossup. So why didn?t I simply assign one unit if it was so even? Because I wanted to be a big shot that?s why. No matter how long we are in the game, we can still let pride, ego and lack of money management doom us. We live and we learn, on to today.

1:05 PM ET Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds

Jeff Samardzija gets the start for the Cubs in the first half of a day-night doubleheader this afternoon in Cincinnati. The 27-year-old right-hander has been impressive in his last two outings, allowing only two runs in 14 innings of work. He pitched brilliantly back in May against the Reds in a 3-1 victory, giving up only 3 hits and allowing only one run after being pulled during the 8^th inning.?

His counterpart will be Johnny Cueto who owns a respectable 3.26 ERA and a 1.262 WHIP against the Cubs during his career. He dazzled last time out against Chicago, blanking the Cubs 3-0 and allowing only three hits. Cueto is having an excellent season this year, 15-6 with a 2.45 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP.

While the Cubs have played over the total in four straight and the Reds have gone high twice consecutively headed into this one, we suspect the pitchers will take over and Samardzija will get a longer leash than usual to keep the bullpen fresh for the night game looming. This will diminish the possibility that a good outing is undone by the Cubs lousy pen.

MLB Picks: Play Under 7 ? (-110) for 3 units.?

7:05 PM ET??Baltimore Orioles at Detroit Tigers

Can you believe that the Orioles and the Tigers have identical records at 64-55? I know I can?t but they do. However I know who the better team is and it ain?t the Orioles. We?ve got a lousy pitcher in Zach Britton for the O?s and a mediocre pitcher in Rick Porcello for the Tigers. Sounds like it might be a good spot to bet the Over but Baltimore has a decent pen and Porcello has historically pitched effectively enough against Baltimore.?

So that means we will look for a fair share of runs but go with the home chalk on the run line in case the Orioles have upset on their minds.?

MLB Picks: Play Detroit -1 ? (+100) for 2 units. ?

7:10 PM ET??Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers

Everyone loves piling on the Phillies lousy season, but to play against them just to play against them would be bad advice, especially if you decide to fade them against a team like the Brewers who have had a similarly disastrous season.?

Cole Hamels has been lights out lately, pitching two complete games of shutout ball. That?s virtually unheard of in today?s game but Hamels has the chops to get it done when he?s on top of his game. In his last 3 outings he has a 0.72 ERA and a 0.84 WHIP. Wow!

Milawaukee will send rookie Michale Fiers to the bump, he of the 6.19 ERA over his last three starts. To be fair, Fiers has had an excellent rookie campaign but got positively torched at Coors Filed in Colorado last time out when he allowed 8 runs in only two innings of work.?

I don?t think it will be that easy for a rookie to brush himself off after getting lit up as badly as he did in his last start. He will have the added pressure of watching a master at work in Cole Hamels. The Phillies may be in the midst of a three game skid but frankly, they?ve been skidding all season so they?ve gotten used to it. The Brew Crew may have home field advantage but the Phillies have the decided edge on the mound.?

MLB Picks: Play the Phillies -105 for 4 units.

Source: http://www.sbrforum.com/mlb-baseball/free-picks/mlb-picks-baseball-betting-swinging-johnson-a-26143/

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